Gold Down, U.S. Yields Up Ahead of Fed Policy Decision
Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia as U.S. Treasury yields rose and the upcoming policy decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve dented demand for the yellow metal.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields firmed after retreating from the 3% mark hit during the previous session.
The Fed is widely expected to announce a big interest rate hike in an effort to curb high inflation when it hands down its policy decision later in the day. The Federal Open Market Committee will release its policy statement, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference.
Investors widely expect a decision on raising the benchmark overnight interest rates alongside details on reducing the Fed’s $8.9 trillion balance sheet.
“A 50-basis point hike is now priced in by markets… if the statement has a still more hawkish bias, then gold is likely to come under pressure once again,” OANDA senior analyst Jeffrey Halley told Reuters.
“If the statement remains mostly unchanged in its guidance, then a short-term recovery to $1,880 is possible as the dollar is likely to fall.”
The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched up on Wednesday but remained close to 20-year highs.
Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will hand down its own policy decision on Thursday.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 enters a tenth week, Russian troops pounded targets in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing to unveil fresh sanctions on Moscow, which includes those on oil.
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Oil climbs 1% after U.S. crude stocks signal tighter supply
Oil prices rose at the start of Asian trade on Wednesday after industry data showed drawdowns in U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles, raising supply concerns and offsetting worries about slowing demand from top importer China.
The gains come on the back of news from Tuesday that the European Union is working on new sanctions against Russia for waging war on Ukraine that will target Moscow’s oil industry.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to spell out the plans on Wednesday, officials said.
In the United States, crude and fuel stocks fell last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks fell by 3.5 million barrels for the week ended April 29, the sources said, more than an expected 800,000-barrel drop in a Reuters poll. [API/S]
“The API report had people stop worrying about the demand side and start worrying about the supply side again,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group.
U.S. government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday. [EIA/S]
During the previous session, demand worries stemming from China’s prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns that curtailed travel plans during the Labour Day holiday season caused prices to fall by more than 2%.
The global manufacturing PMI contracted in April for the first time since June 2020, with China’s lockdowns a key contributor, Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics said in a note.
“The big picture is clearly negative for commodities demand,” she said, adding that rising inflation and higher interest rates are starting to bear down on spending.
“While supply constraints may keep commodity prices elevated for some time yet, we think subdued demand will weigh on most prices later this year and in 2023,” Bain said.
On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies are expected to stick to their policy for another monthly production increase although the group, known as OPEC+, has undershot output targets between October and March, except for February.
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